ARE WE FACING THE END OF THE PLANET
In the days of Dr. Strangelove and the threat of nuclear warfare, we were taught how to seek shelter in the event of a nuclear attack. The more cautious folks built bomb shelters with supplies of food and water. Even as a youngster, I wondered what the point was since, if you walked out once your supplies were exhausted, there would only be an uninhabitable wasteland. Although the threat of a nuclear exchange may have grown in the past few years, the more sinister likely ending is self-inflicted climate change which began long ago.
The 1901 Lucas gusher at Spindle Top near Beaumont Texas, shown below, ushered in an era of oil production in Texas which remains significant to this day. It is beyond anyone’s comprehension in the oil industry to see a well blow-out and continue to produce onto the surface for an extended period until it could be capped for later production. At that time no one would have particularly cared that oil was damaging the surface of the earth. Having been in the oil industry my adult life, that behavior is totally at odds with the oil industry for the past sixty years. Nonetheless, there are other environmental trends that require attention. Skyrocketing oil and gas prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine have re-energized various sectors of the oil industry.
There are few people with their hands on their hearts that can deny that Global Warming threatens life on this planet. Nonetheless, climate change has become a political issue though denial can accelerate the future demise of this world as we know it. Fossil fuels must be approached in a logical and scientific fashion to address the threat and prioritize the actions to be taken. The key word is “global” as it is useless for one country to reduce emissions and another to increase them. The fundamental need is power production that can be used in a wide range of consumption from air conditioning to processing rare earth metals to support batteries in electric vehicles.
It is interesting to see the challenge ahead by looking at the composition of U.S. energy consumption in 2022 by source of energy. The percentage of each source is highlighted below with oil and natural gas representing 69% of the total followed by renewable energy at 13%, coal at 10% and nuclear power at 8%. Despite the renewable energy progress, the energy source ratios in 2022 were not substantially different from those of the year before. Moreover, there is a clear hierarchy of environmental damage caused by fossil fuels with coal being the key culprit. Petroleum and natural gas follow with nuclear being the cleanest source of energy before renewables.
With the above energy landscape, one would expect coal to be on the way out but that is not the case. Recently, Nikkei Asia published an article entitled World Struggles to Break Coal Habit Despite Looming Climate Risk. Despite the reality of climate change, the world continues to depend on coal as a power source, with more coal-fired capacity created than retired every year. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said, “The climate time bomb is ticking.” The graph below illustrates that over the past 22 years coal use is increasing despite growth in renewables. Simply stated, renewables as we know them cannot generate enough power to meet the power demand from growing economies.
It should come as no surprise that China leads the climate destructive hit parade, not only in new coal plant commissioning, but also less decommissioning of existing coal plants. Moreover, China is not alone in that India and Indonesia are moving up the leader board list in coal burning. The International Energy Agency predicts that global demand for coal will reach a new high this year.
Higher oil prices have revitalized one of the least environmentally friendly segments of the oil industry. The New York Times recently covered this trend In Search of Oil, “Monster Fracks” Grow Thirstier Yet.” To recover hydrocarbons, “hydraulic fracking” is the injection of vast quantities of chemically infused water to fracture otherwise unproductive seams of hydrocarbons. Chemically tainted water is then returned to the surface to be disposed. Climate change has resulted in extended periods of record heat that has diminished the water table and reduced surface water. Although the Texas water table receives protection for most all enterprises, there is an exemption if water is used for oil production. Accordingly, the Texas groundwater supply is expected to drop one-third by 2070. The landowner’s future, shown below, does not look too bright unless he owns a royalty interest in the oil being produced. No matter what, the environment is surely taking a beating.
Recently the Upstream Energy Explorer reported a Reuters/Scanpix article with the image of South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa, below, who made it clear his country was moving ahead to establish their own hydrocarbon industry regardless of the fossil fuel opponents on the world stage. The President looks serious about his intentions to follow his own course and not to be dependent on others for energy supplies.
You might ask what all of this means. Many people turn a blind eye to climate change with the description that it is the result of nature. More accurately, it is the result of the actions of mankind impacting nature. If you enjoyed the miserable summer this year that most people experienced, get used to it as there are likely more waiting in the future. Perhaps, we have seen the tipping point with increasingly unbearable periods ahead until this planet becomes uninhabitable. The suicide could be stopped by removing the politics and focusing on the root causes. It is not too late, but time is slipping away.
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